November 29, Wednesday

After categorizing offenses into different tiers based on their severity, my focus shifted to tier 3, which specifically encompasses crimes like larceny and robbery. To predict these tier 3 crimes, I conducted research to identify a suitable forecasting model. Opting for the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model, I found it to be a valuable tool in time series forecasting due to its simplicity, versatility, and effectiveness in capturing temporal patterns. The ARIMA model’s capability to handle a broad spectrum of time series data was a key factor in my decision. While I successfully implemented the ARIMA model, the results proved somewhat intricate, requiring further interpretation. Additionally, I plan to explore other models to determine which one yields the best outcomes.

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